In texas hold'em poker, if a person has 4 spades on the flop, wat are the odds of making the flush if going all-in and getting 2 more cards?
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Anonymous
ANSWERS: 4
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Think about it. There are 52 cards in the deck, 13 of each suit. You have 4 spades... so there are 9 spades left and 48 other cards. The chances of being dealt a spade next is 9/48. If you are dealt a spade, the chance of being dealt another one is 8/47. Therefore the chances of being given two spades is 9/48 * 8/47 = 3.191%
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Here's an easy way to figuring that stuff out that comes close enough: On the flop, count the number of outs you have. Then X it by 4. You have 9 outs to get a flush by the river so that would be 9 x 4. That's 36. That's your percentage. You have a 36 percent chance of making the flush. If you're on the turn it would x's by 2. That'd be 9 outs on the turn. 9 x 2. That's 18. 18 percent chance to hit the flush on the river card.
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The easiest way to calculate this is to work out the probability of NOT making a flush and then subtracting from 1. So here, there are 47 unseen cards (if opponent's hand is turned face-up because it is an all-in situation then we can work that into the maths too, but since you don't say that then I'm assuming his hand is face down until the river is dealt)... 9 of these cards are spades that will make your flush. So the chances of NOT hitting the flush are 38/47 * 37/46, which makes the probability of HITTING the flush 1 - (38/47 * 37/46) = 378/1081, which is a teensy fraction less than a 35% chance.
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The easiest way is to use a online calculator - that will do it all for you. There are a few free ones on the net - just search for "poker odds calculator" or something like that. I personally don't prefer the Cardplayer version, it's to slow. Another solution would be to use Texas Calculatem, great if you're unsure of the odds in different situations - http://www.calculatem.com
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