ANSWERS: 9
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Well put it this way, he has a 50% chance of being right. If he said that there was definitely going to be rain, he'd be wrong
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No, but it does mean that there is a good chance of getting wet- especially if you live where I live.
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Any time someone says anything other than a complete absolute, it means they aren't completely sure.
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i'd say yes,weathermen have a 15% chance of being right.
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No, that probably indicates the station model shown, is not dependent on. It also gives his 50% on being right and 50% of being wrong, making him right anyways. And I think he does have a clue of what he's talking about. There are many weather channels, and they all have to be accurate.
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I found this answer at Darmouth University's online magazine "Chance": http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/ Weather predicting is not simple. Though you may be sorry you asked, cause you'll know less about the likelihood of rain in your particular neighborhood after I explain this than you did before. But if you're a faithful reader, maybe you're used to that situation. Anyway, if the National Weather Service says there's a 30% chance of rain in the San Diego area tomorrow, what they're saying is the odds are three in ten that someplace (or places)in the area will get wet. In some large geographical areas, the probability is expressed slightly differently. . . .
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I provide a very simple explanation: Chance of rain = (number of favourable weather conditions on same day in the past)/(total number of weather conditions on the same day in the past). Of course the weatherman has an 'idea' if it's going to rain. What he does not know is if it will rain for certain. The only time a weatherman knows it will not rain is if the chance is 0% (example: no clouds). In the case of 100%, he is very confident it will rain but cannot be absolutely certain (example: unexpected winds blow clouds away). http://mathphile.blogspot.com
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No it means that there probably will be rain in the area. It doesn't mean you will get wet though. We have found a 50% chance is 50 chances in 100 or 1 out of 2 in the area. You may not be in the right place to get wet.
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It only means that he only has 50% confidence of a correct prediction. Weather man would not make a prediction like this. There is no professionalism in what he predicts. We do not have to be weather man to make such a statement. Weather forecast would have higher levels of predictability like 95% or 98%.
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