P(bomb on plane)=1/50,000. P(2 bombs on plane)= 1/50000*1/50,000 or 1/250,000,000. My friend wants to bring a bomb on his next flight, because the chances of 2 bombs is practically zero, so it makes him safer. Should I discourage this?
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SomeSayMarryMoney
ANSWERS: 3
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Yes, because the two events are independent. Once he boards the plane with his bomb (which I assume he will not detonate), the probability of ANOTHER bomb being brought aboard the plane is still 1/50k.
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Carrying a bomb on a plane makes everyone on that plane including your friend a LOT LESS safe regardless of how many other bombs are on the plane. If your question is purely academic then the probability is analogous to that of the coin toss. The odds of a single bomb being on the plane are the same because that probability is independent of the presence or absence of any other bomb(s) on the plane. The probabilities of your friend getting a bomb aboard that plane are dependent on other factors such as the level and competency of the security and inspection when he makes the attempt; your friend's determination to go through with it; the strength of the container holding the bomb; etc.
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Laurie Anderson made this joke years ago in a monologue.
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