How often are the Groundhogs right? Should I be hopeful for an early spring this year?
by 
mysticdeliria
ANSWERS: 3
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Take your best guess. This year, even all of the so-called "famous groundhogs" couldn't agree.
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On one of the morning news shows (possibly Good Morning America) the host said the groundhog is right 30% of the time.
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Groundhog Day organizers brag that their groundhog forecasts are 70 to 90 percent accurate, but meteorological records prove that the groundhog's success rates are pretty low. Dr. Philips study of weather data for the past 30 to 40 years for 13 cities across Canada shows that there was an equal number of cloudy and sunny days on February 2nd. During that time, the groundhog's predictions were, on average, 37 percent accurate. For nearly two-thirds of the years the groundhog's predictions were wrong. Given that 33 percent accuracy can happen by chance, an average of 37 percent is not a lot. http://www.learner.org/jnorth/1997/critters/everywhere/ghog/accuracy.html
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