Will the U.S. economic recession be short lived or long lasting?

by CousinVinny on May 28th, 2008

I hope that you have some Snickers bars on hand cause we are going to be in this mess a while.
The housing bubble burst and most folks don't have money to throw around now cause it is going into their gas tank.

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by MrJosh on December 3rd, 2008

I think it will start turning around in late 2009 or early 2010, but we will not see anything noticable until 2011.

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by Simply99 -- Not a fan favorite. on May 28th, 2008

Technically, it's not a recession. However, expect things to perk back up by the end of summer. After 52 consecutive months of positive growth, one would place that in the 'short lived' file.

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Warren Buffet said a few days ago that even though it is not technically a recession in the classic meaning of the term, that we are in, effectively, a recession and it would last far longer than any of us expected. Also, it was announced a couple of days ago that consumerism of fuel for non-essential driving in the US is at it's lowest point since 1942. What do you make of that? (Not picking an arguement, I am sincerely asking your opinion!)
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by This Daley has a new bundle of joy on May 28th, 2008
No, it's OK, Sir, I like a good challenge. So, if you allow, will reply not in aggression, but in a open dialogue sort of way.
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Obviously, I was going by the true definition of recession, which is 2 consecutive months of negative growth. Last quarter, it was up by .6%, which, yes, is not a lot of growth but still growth. That's part one.
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Part two, allow me to quote, please, "a recession and it would last far longer than any of us expected." I'm not sure how long anybody would expect a recession to last, but would be agreed the shorter, the better, so it probably would last longer than anybody would expect (like), even if it be just a one quarter recession.
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Part three, quote “Also, it was announced a couple of days ago that consumerism of fuel for non-essential driving in the US is at it's lowest point since 1942.” That most likely would be pro-rated, correct? Also, defining non-essential driving would seem to be so subjective that it’s really a faulty statistic. If you drive a mile to the grocery store when you can walk, does that make it essential or non-essential? You need food (essential) but it would be easily in walking distance for the average American (non-essential).
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by Simply99 -- Not a fan favorite. on May 28th, 2008
Honestly, I believe we got so used to being in such a strong economy for so long, we got spoiled and forgot what a slow down is like, which is why it ‘feels’ like a recession, though by definition it is not. I did use the NASCAR analogy before, and still believe it’s still a good, yet fun, way to describe the current economic situation. I’ll be honest in saying that the current economic situation really hasn’t effected me or my family in the least. We’re coping as good as we’ve ever did, and much better than 10 years ago.
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Has this adequately satisfied your inquiry? BTW, I was in NC like 10 years ago, very beautiful land you have there. Was a joy to visit.
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Oh, and so sorry for referring to you as 'Sir' in the past post. Was before I realized you were lady with child.
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by Simply99 -- Not a fan favorite. on May 28th, 2008
There is a lot here for my to ponder and I have no brain power at this point, but before I forgot, I wanted to post links to the articles that fueled my question. This is not the same as what I read, but same basic content (and I stand corrected - sharpest decline in driving since '42 - so must be a percentage...) http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/26/gas.driving/index.html
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by This Daley has a new bundle of joy on May 28th, 2008
And the Buffett article http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hV7SnUSh6F7Z-beL9bu6vmK8tk_AD90T9Q4G0
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by This Daley has a new bundle of joy on May 28th, 2008
Ms. Daley, you seem reasonable and open and all that stuff. I read your source, and was interesting, but honestly I hate citation when used in a (friendly) arguement. You don't have to, of course, but I would like a reply from you, your own thoughts, if you get a chance and would like to. I don't want to argue, judge, or diminish or anything like that, just to get an opinion as part of a nice, open dialogue conversation. I was open with you, and those are my own thoughts (though I am sure many have thought 'what a dumbass!') and was just wondering your real thoughts. Your call, no biggie, but just wondering since you brought it up.
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by Simply99 -- Not a fan favorite. on May 28th, 2008
I absolutely will respond, but I am too exhausted at this point in the night (it is 10 pm for me) and I want to actually take my time to read your comments thoroughly and respond thoroughly. I am so pleased to find someone who will DISCUSS that I don't want to waste it!!! You will have my response tomorrow. Thanks :o)
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by This Daley has a new bundle of joy on May 28th, 2008

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by Ed the Jetpacking Headbanger on May 28th, 2008

I'm afraid so due to energy and food prices rising. Unemployment has been on the rise, people can't afford to pay hteir mortgages, taxes are rising, Iraq is costing us billions...
Some think it will be long lasting. I read this today:
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/buffett-sees-long-deep-recession/20080525114109990001?icid=1615984946x1203051834x1200309131