ANSWERS: 1
  • Probably not, partly because of the current situation in Iraq, but also because the UN Security Council is so fragmented, particularly when it comes to invading countries who are not necessarily "aggressors" in the traditional "Hitler - Nazi," "Saddam - Kuwait" sense. Because Iran is only guilty of establishing a nuclear program (something several countries are doing), SC members like France and Russia likely will not agree to attack. Of course, Iran is guilty of several human rights abuses against its own people, but that typically is not enough for the UN to move in, otherwise they would have been in full force in areas like the Sudan, a region rife with genocide, and a region which, if the collective might of the UN really wanted to, could crush the Janjaweed like little bugs. The UN will likely adopt "firm language" in condemning Iran's nuclear program, but given the inaction and dallying the UN did when Saddam Hussein and Iraq were, so to speak, "refusing the nuclear watchdog," it is highly unlikely they would move against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Iranians anytime soon, unless of course, Iran directly invades a country like Kuwait or Iraq (after the US leaves it, of course). Ahmadinejad, regardless of your opinion of the man, is smart enough to know this, and will continue to push the envelope as he has already. Considering his recent "Holocaust was a Hoax" Conference, and his constant taunts that President Bush too afraid to debate him, Ahmadinejad's boldness will likely continue for some time. I suspect the UN will continue to dally until, like Kim Jong Il and the North Koreans, Ahmadinejad will have a full-fleged bomb. The one saving grace about Ahmadinejad, at least in my opinion, is that he is like a lion or any other agressive animal - leave him alone, and he probably won't do anything, Ahmadinejad himself has said publically that he just wants Iran to be left alone. If the UN (or the US) backs him into a corner, well, then he will come out fighting. And if he does have nuclear weapons, he would be apt to use them. The UN knows this, and aren't likely to provoke him anytime soon. Given the current chaos in Iraq, President Bush has to know (even if he won't admit it) that it would be polical and diplomatic suicide to unilaterally invade Iran now.

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