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by ... on February 22nd, 2005

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How do meteorologists predict lightning storms?

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  • by Patrick OReilly on March 23rd, 2005

    Patrick OReilly

    What you call "lightning storms" I will call thunderstorms, as there is no thunder without lightning. So basically we're talking about the same thing. And since we call them thunderstorms, I'll go with that.

    Thunderstorms are usually instigated by several factors: sufficient moisture, usually at low levels near the surface, a vertical profile in the atmosphere that is unstable, meaning a parcel of air will continue to rise if given a "push" upward, and a mechanism to give the air parcels a "push", such as a cold or warm front. Simply stated, "moisture, instability and lift." When these three things come together within certain parameters, we would forecast thunderstorms for a certain location.

    It is possible that thunderstorms can arise with just two of the three parameters....for example when there is no surface front or other mechanism to lift the air, but there is great instability and plenty of moisture, if the air parcels rise due to the instability and there is nothing to stop them, a shower/thunderstorm may form.

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